Oil price to hit $100 if Opec+ cuts continue says Vitol chief

Crude prices are likely to reach $100 per barrel in 2024 if Opec+ maintains its output cuts, a global commodity trader has said.

The supply-constrained market has already reached an average price of $83 per barrel this year, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported, quoting Vitol CEO Russell Hardy’s speech on Tuesday at a summit in Lausanne, Switzerland. 

He added that $80 to $100 per barrel “feels like a sensible range for the market” due to Opec’s global control of inventories.

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Vitol expects global growth of nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, matching 2023 numbers, with key contributors including China, India and increased air travel boosting demand for jet fuel.

In September 2023, experts told AGBI that oil was primed to hit the psychologically important $100 level.

Oil prices hovered around the $90 mark on Wednesday, after two straight days of losses, Reuters reported.

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Brent crude futures were up marginally at $89.49 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 8 cents to $85.31.

US investment bank Morgan Stanley this week upped its Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter of 2024 by $4 per barrel to $94 due to geopolitical risks in the region related to the Gaza conflict.

“That the degree of geopolitical risk in key oil producing regions has increased recently seems clear and uncontroversial,” Reuters reported, quoting the bank’s note to its clients.