Gulf fertility: falling short of replacement rates

Your starter for 10. The demographics of Tehran most closely resemble those of which city? a) Damascus b) Riyadh or c) Zurich.

The answer of course, as any fule kno, is c). True, Zurich lacks a prison with the reputation and commodiousness of Evin, but in terms of population growth –  or lack of it – the two cities are similar. On average, women in Tehran were having only 1.5 children, according to the 2016 census. The total fertility rate in Zurich, meanwhile, has collapsed, Neue Zürcher Zeitung reports cheerfully.

Tehran is not alone in falling below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Iran itself is ageing fast, as are: Bahrain, Kosovo, Lebanon, Turkey and Tunisia, according to a presentation by Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute. Algeria and Morocco are likely to follow soon, Eberstadt says.

In Turkey, Recep Tayyep Erdoğan, the president, has long campaigned for what he perceives to be the need for more children, including from Turks living in Europe. Make of that what you will. Unfortunately for Erdoğan, the Turkish-speaking population of Turkey has probably been below replacement for some time while the Kurdish population has continued to grow, Eberstadt says.

What of the Arabian Gulf? Ihsan Mahasneh and Ferdos Ibrahim, writing in the exotically named Middle East Fertility Society Journal, say that Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE were below replacement rate in 2021. Saudi Arabia was slightly above at 2.4, but still down compared with its rate of 2.8 in 2011. There is no doubting the trajectory.

At the other end of the scale Somalia, Sudan and Comoros women were still having four children or more in 2021. Egypt, a perennial concern, was at 2.9.

Eberstadt says that the best predictor of likely population growth is how many children women want or, in the academic literature, the desired family size. Mmm. Women speaking in Tehran wanted to have children – or more of them – but were being held back by a shortage of housing and the cost of living.

Today, inflation of 35 percent, power cuts and a tanking riyal cannot be helping. Perhaps if their government prioritised the welfare of its citizens over nuclear weapons and foreign adventures Iranian women may be able to have the number of children they want.

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How much does this matter?

Much is made of the demographic transition in China, for example. But the decline from the roughly 1.4 billion population of today represents more a return to the status quo ante. In 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan, the population of the mainland was 542 million. The Chinese population has therefore all but tripled in a lifetime. Bluntly, China is overpopulated. Only a third of Chinese students go to secondary school, while much of the country suffers from water stress.

That is not to underplay concerns in other states. South Korea, Japan, Italy and Spain are now feeling the real effects of declining birthrates. Economists worry rightly over the actuarial burden of ageing populations and the potential for deflation.

But the likes of Iran and Turkey, Saudi Arabia and – here’s hoping – Egypt should be pleased. The burden of young populations in the Middle East in search of too-few-jobs is beginning to turn.