UAE labour market: Too many people, not enough jobs

• UAE employment growth at 3-year low
• Population grew 6% in 2024
• People arriving to seek work

More people are looking for jobs in the UAE than there is work available for them, according to a labour market report from recruitment consultancy Cooper Fitch.

Hiring in the second-largest Arab economy grew by less than 1.3 percent in the three months to March 31 compared with the same period last year, the report shows.

Last year, the UAE population – of which only about a fifth are citizens – expanded by almost 6 percent to 11.3 million, with Dubai being the most populous emirate in the seven-member federation. 

The population of Dubai, the UAE’s commercial centre, is now 3.8 million and has almost doubled in the last 20 years, as people from all over the world are attracted to the emirate’s tax-free income, infrastructure and relative political stability.

“It’s certainly an oversupply,” said Trefor Murphy, Cooper Fitch CEO. “Even though the economy is going well, it’s still too many people coming in without the job market expanding fast enough to absorb them.”

The data may also not bode well for Dubai’s property market, which has expanded over the years, especially since 2022, as supply outstrips those with paying jobs. Lower oil prices may also mean limited government spending this year and next, reduced economic growth expectations and fewer job opportunities.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index, a measure of monthly supply and demand trends in the UAE non-oil sector, shows expansion slowing in March to 54, its lowest reading since September, according to analytics provider S&P Global. That compares with a score of 55 in both January and February.

New orders fell for a third month in March, with growth at its weakest reading of 56.3 since October, S&P said.

Employment growth was subdued, marking its slowest pace in nearly three years, S&P said.

“It’s the volume and the speed in which they (people) are coming here and maybe the slight neglect they are showing by coming here without having anything,” said Murphy.

Most companies held off hiring in the first quarter “choosing instead to meet demand with existing staff,” Murphy said

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“There’s growing pressure with people arriving on visit visas just to look for work,” said Ian Giulianotti, executive director at recruitment firm Nadia Global. “It’s like buying a lottery ticket — they’re hoping their number comes up.”

Across the broader six-member GCC region – which also takes in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain – there was steady demand for skills in some sectors, the Cooper Fitch report shows.

Banking jobs were up 6 percent, investment hiring 3 percent and general finance positions 3 percent in the first quarter.

There was a 4 percent rise in real estate job postings but business support, strategy, and consulting roles declined by 2 percent, the data shows.